Gambling has exploded in South Africa. The National Gambling Board (NGB) has noted that the incidence of gambling has increased from 31% to 66% from 2017 to 2023 [1]. When looking at betting alone – most of which is online and sports-related – the increase is from 13% to 46%, a staggering increase in only six years.

This surge is by no means a coincidence. South Africans have suffered in the wake of the economic issues stemming from the COVID pandemic, and coupled with intractably high unemployment rates, especially among young people, many have turned to unconventional means of making cash. This is evidenced by a large NGB survey [2] which reveals only a minority of gamblers indicate that they either gamble as a form of relaxation/leisure (20%) or because they enjoy playing games of risk (20%). Sixty-eight percent gamble for the “chance to win large sums of money”; while, most concerningly, 56% do so as they “needed the money”. Additionally, the NGB notes that 27% of gamblers receive social grants indicating that they are already in a financially precarious position.

These demand side factors are compounded by an increasingly boisterous online gambling industry. In the 12 months from March 2024 to March 2025, sports betting companies spent over R2.5 billion on advertising – more than the entire telecommunications industry over the same period [3]. Sitting down to watch any sports event, live or on TV, guarantees a bombardment of enticingly colourful betting ads. For example, Betway is currently the name sponsor of two major domestic sport competitions: the Betway Premiership (South Africa’s topflight football league) and the Betway SA20 (the new and improved cricket league). Furthermore, large online sports betting brands are no strangers to predatory promotional strategies clearly designed to get new players hooked – perhaps most infamously, the free R1 000 bet on the Springboks to win the Rugby World Cup in 2023

This has all, of course, been immensely profitable for the gambling industry. The charts below show the rapid growth in turnover and gross gambling revenue (GGR) for the industry as a whole. Turnover, it is important to note, is the Rand value of total money wagered, which therefore includes recycled winnings that are used to place further bets. Thus, the more relevant figure is GGR — which is turnover less winnings paid out to players.

The figures reveal a sharp increase in both turnover and GGR since a pandemic related dip in 2020 when casinos were closed and sports events limited. Since 2017/2018, GGR, or how much the ‘house’ takes from players, has doubled from close to R30 billion to R60 billion.

Interestingly, turnover has risen more sharply than GGR. Thus, for every Rand staked the ‘house’ has actually been taking less money (see figure below). This is referred to as the hold percentage and is calculated by dividing turnover by GGR.

There are two primary causes of the declining hold percentage for the gambling industry in South Africa. Firstly, the landscape of gambling has evolved, marked by a shift from casino games to sports betting (see figure below).

This is relevant as sports betting is characterized by having a significantly lower hold percentage than casino games. Betting overtook casinos as the largest contributor to industry-wide GGR in 2020/2021 – the same year the hold percentage decreased below 7%.

Aside from the shift from casino games to sports betting, the hold percentage in sports betting has also decreased.

Between 2020/2021 and 2023/2024, sports betting turnover increased more than six-fold while GGR increased approximately four-fold.

In line with this, hold percentages have declined from 7.5% in 2019/20 to 4.3% in 2023/2024. So, in the absence of any regulatory changes, what is driving these decreasing hold percentages? The likely answer is increased market competition in the gambling industry. As new players enter the market – Betway in 2017, Lulabet in 2022, and SuperSportBet in early 2024 – bookmakers are forced to reduce their vigs – the fee or commission, built into the odds, that a bookmaker charges – which ultimately manifests in a lower hold percentage. Crucially, the rapidly increasing demand doesn’t offset increased competition, because supply – in the form of digital bookmakers – is infinitely scalable.

This evolving landscape raises urgent questions for both regulators and the industry. Left unchecked, the current trajectory risks deepening financial vulnerability and social harm – particularly among South Africa’s most economically precarious groups. But heavy-handed regulation, especially in a digital age, may be counterproductive.

If South Africa bans gambling outright or limits stake amounts relative to income or wealth there is a real risk that consumers may simply shift to offshore or unlicensed platforms, many of which operate outside the reach of domestic regulation with few or no consumer protections.

Lighter touch regulation such as limiting or banning advertising – as has been done in other ‘vice’ industries – may be a happy middle ground. Other creative solutions could be explored, such as requiring that winnings be paid directly into winners’ bank accounts rather than their online betting accounts – a measure that would help winners know when to stop. Other options could include be a time delay on winnings paid out or increased friction when loading additional funds.

For the industry, there’s a clear incentive to act before the regulatory hammer falls. Demonstrating commitment to responsible gambling could help operators avoid more aggressive restrictions – and protect their social license to operate.

Ultimately, the challenge is not how to stop gambling altogether, but how to ensure that a booming industry does not leave a trail of personal and societal losses in its wake. A future where gambling is both popular and safe is not impossible – but it will require urgency, coordination, and a willingness to act before the harm becomes irreversible.

[1] National Gambling Board Annual Report 2023/2024. Incidence is the percentage of adult population who have gambled in the past 12 months.

[2] Details of which (sample or representativeness) are unknown.

[3] Online Betting Advertising Spend Soars, Moneyweb

Sources

National Gambling Statistics FY2023/24, National Gambling Board, 2024, https://www.ngb.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/National-Gambling-Statistics-Financial-Year-Ending-31-March-2024-Audited.pdf

Annual Report 2023/24, National Gambling Board, 2024, https://www.ngb.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/NGB-AR2024-FINAL.pdf

Socio-Economic Impact of Illegal and Online Gambling in South Africa, National Gambling Board, 2016, https://www.ngb.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Final-Summary-illegal-gambling-research-report-28-Sep-16.pdf\

Gambling Sector Performance In South Africa | FY2023/24, National Gambling Board, 2024, https://www.ngb.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/NGB-GSP-FINAL-280125.pdf

Online Betting Advertising Spend Soars, Moneyweb, Maggs, 2025, https://www.moneyweb.co.za/marketingweb/online-betting-advertising-spend-soars/

The Rise of Online Gambling In South Africa, Perpetua, 2025, https://perpetua.co.za/2025/04/the-rise-of-online-gambling-in-south-africa/